Vaccination is our Only Salvation, But It's Not Coming Anytime Soon
- Aug 25, 2020
- 6 min read
As the world limps along in 2020 and each Country is trying desperately to shore up holes in their economies that have been devastated by social distancing measures, everyone is looking for that magical vaccine to come and save us all so we can click our heels three times and say “There’s no place like 2019, There’s no place like 2019”. Look, guys. I don’t want to be the bearer of bad news, but COVID19 isn’t going away this year. And it’s not going away for 2021 either, even with a vaccine. We need to temper our expectations to realistic levels.
Yes, there are some very promising vaccines in development that are already in Phase 3 trialing. But, most vaccines aren’t 100% effective at blocking a virus. Even the flu vaccine, during its best years is only about 60% effective. Most of the time, it’s 30-40% effective each year.
Of course, many vaccines can be much more effective, like the measles vaccine, which is about 98% effective if done correctly. This is due to the rate of mutation we see in measles vs a virus like the flu or COVID19. We still don’t know everything about how fast COVID19 mutates, but it’s safe to say it will be on par with the flu, which changes every year and thus needs a new vaccine with varying effectiveness every year to be made. So it’s also safe to say whatever vaccine the world develops, especially the first iteration, will not be close to 100% efficacy.
Secondly, once a viable vaccine passes all phase trials, we still need to produce enough to vaccinate, well….everybody. Or at least as many humans as feasibly possible as fast as possible. First, it will be limited to vulnerable populations, but this still is going to require millions and millions of vaccinations, especially if it is going to be multiple shots per person. If a vaccine is developed by the end of this year, or early 2021, which is looking to be best case scenario, we won’t see production scale reach viable levels for us to really get back to normal until closer to the end of 2021, more likely into 2022.
Here’s Dr Fauci effectively spelling that out:
“We hope as we go along that by the end of this year, or the beginning of 2021, we will at least have an answer whether the vaccine, or vaccines plural, are safe and effective.… If so, … we are now working with the companies… to start making doses before we even know whether it works or not. So that when we get to the winter in the early part of 2021, we will start to have a large number of doses that people will be able to use if it turns out to be safe and effective. The big if.”
As he says, this is all best case scenario. We still need to confirm these vaccines are safe AND effective, and that requires large scale human testing, Phase 3 trials. Which a few are already going through, but time will tell how well they work. They are already getting a head start into mass manufacturing, but nothing is getting released until all trials are complete. If they aren't safe or effective, we lose a lot of that timeline. And even if they are effective and safe, the production levels we will need globally are going to be in the Billions of vaccines. It will take time.
I don’t mean to be the big Debbie Downer in the room, but I think the people who think we can go back to normal the second the clock strikes January 1st, 2021, need a reality check. Social distancing, mask usage, limiting your exposure to indoor dining and bars and gyms and movie theatres and other avenues where people need to take their masks off, this is the new normal for the foreseeable future. We need to accept that now. And yes, that means virtual learning for students at least through this entire school year into Summer 2021 and possibly through the fall, too.
Restaurants and bars are going to struggle, I don’t see how they make it another year with severely reduced capacity but that’s the reality that a lot of our leaders aren’t telling us. I wish there was a plan to help those businesses survive beyond “open back up and good luck everybody”, but unfortunately this country has adopted the policy of “sacrifice your grandma’s for the economy.” Our government officials have just learned to stop saying that aloud. And now 200k+ dead Americans “is what it is”.
But, saying all this I don’t mean to disparage vaccination. Quite the opposite, it really is the only long term way we have out of this nightmare. The US may be doing bad, but every country is struggling with its own policies and the world economy running at such reduced capacity is bursting at the seams. It’s a race against the clock at this point to see how many countries can manage to keep their schools virtual and their service industries massively reduced while we wait out a vaccine. If the first vaccine that is shown to be safe and only 40% effective, that may seem like a low number but exponential growth will see a massive curbing of the virus spread if everyone adapts the vaccine. If 4/10 people who would have gotten infected now don’t, that is a huge change in the Ro of the virus and a massive game changer. I am trying to be a bit more realistic in the timeline because I fear the people expecting a vaccine to cure everything by the end of the year will be disappointed when it doesn’t happen, and then they will buy into the vast array of misinformation out there against the use of said vaccines.
Already, videos and articles are popping out of the anti-vax cess pool to pop into mainstream right and left leaning minds to scare everyone that any vaccine development is just a vast rushed cash grab and won’t be safe. People are already primed for this propaganda thanks to our Dear Leader constantly fanning the flames that the virus is “just the flu” or some democrat hoax meant to make him look bad. Sure, Donnie. Every country on Earth just bought into this hoax and crippled their economies for the entire year so that one political party in the US can win.
I worry the already somewhat popular anti-vax train of thought, which was wildly dangerous before we had a worldwide pandemic, will gain even more popularity in the coming months. Even some of my science minded left leaning friends have expressed their doubts and concerns over a “rushed” vaccine. I get it, but at the same time we need to realize that at least the vaccines that are showing promise for worldwide development, no shortcuts are being taken as far as safety is concerned. None of these vaccines are skipping Phase 1, 2, or 3 trials. Except possibly Russia, which if so, world governments will not develop and distribute it. The other vaccines are being put through rigorous scientific and health studies, and Phase 3 trials tens of thousands of people. We need to trust the scientific community to do it’s job and experts not to put a vaccine on hundreds of millions of people that isn’t tested for its safety. That is largely what the entire human race is waiting on right now. Large scale phase trials to determine safety of use. If you see anything disparaging some vaccination development on your social media escapades, please be cautious and do some actual research. I’ve already come across some videos from supposed “Doctors”, and they all use the same misinformation tricks of the trade that are used for climate change: lie, misquote, and take information wildly out of context to make it look bad. It’s pretty easy with scientific studies at least to find the actual data online and confirm or deny these articles and videos claims and get the full context of what they’re claiming.
Most who I talk to do want a vaccine developed, but then my next question being “would you be one of the first to use the vaccine after is passed Phase 3 trials, given a chance?” they squirm and backpadel. Sorry guys, but we can’t afford to be Not in My Backyarders on this. Vaccines only work if a large portion of the population buys in and uses them. If we have about 30% of the country refusing to vaccinate, which judging by political leanings can be very very likely going into 2021, we will never get out of this mess. And I fear the US will continue to be number 1 while the rest of the world vaccinates and moves on. Number 1 in deaths and infections, that is.
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