The Coronavirus Is Here and Our Country is Embarrassingly Bad at Handling It
- Mar 12, 2020
- 7 min read
Ok, so 2020 is shaping up to be a great time, eh? Coronavirus is now officially a global pandemic, according to the WHO. Entire countries are shutting down in the largest quarantines in human history. Are we all sure it’s “just a flu”? I’m pretty sure the Italian government and the WHO isn’t depending on American News Media and buying into hysteria when they shut down the 8th largest economy in the world. They’re probably, I don’t know, listening to actual experts and scientists and seeing their hospitals already becoming overloaded as exponential math shows them it’ll be worse before it’s better.
I’m being a bit hyperbolic you say? There aren’t THAT many cases in the USA. It’s just a flu, how bad can it be? People need to stop panicking. Won’t somebody think of the stock market? My Economy, they whisper in horror as the numbers on their 401k plummet.
Well, first, it’s not just a flu. The WHO is estimating a mortality rate of 3.4%. Comparatively, the flu has a mortality rate of far less than 1%. Of course, this number needs to be taken with a grain of salt. There’s probably many many more mild cases or even asymptomatic cases of the virus. Those people aren’t being counted because they didn’t go to the hospital. Still, it's safe to say the mortality rate is higher than the flu so far, especially in older and people with other conditions.
Other factors that separate this virus from the normal flu is the incubation period, and ability to transmit the virus before showing any symptoms. Both of these factors are making the virus much harder to contain and are making the transmission rate estimated to be double that of the flu.
“Van Kerkhove said early studies on Covid-19 suggest people who have contracted the coronavirus are emitting, or “shedding,” infectious viruses very early on — in fact sometimes even before they develop symptoms.
“We do know from shedding studies that people can shed in the pre-symptomatic phase,” Van Kerkhove said, adding that while the data are still preliminary “it seems that people shed more in the early phases rather than the late phases of disease.”
If people can infect others before they know they themselves are ill, it makes it much more difficult to break the chains of transmission.”
Not to mention we have many more treatments available for the flu, including tamiflu, antivirals, and quick testing kits to determine if someone is infected. And not to mention the flu vaccine every year, which can protect a sizable portion of the population.
Moving onto the next point; the number of cases in the US. We’re right at about 1000 or so cases right now confirmed. Unfortunately those numbers aren’t telling us everything. The US was and still is way behind other countries with testing for the Coronavirus. Even today, hospitals and doctors are very limited in their supply of testing kits and patients have to meet certain criteria for a test to be administered. Are they critically ill? Have they been in contact with a confirmed case of Coronavirus? Have they traveled overseas?
The CDC is lagging so far behind in testing that many states have taken it upon themselves to develop their own testing capabilities to get a better idea of the numbers infected.
“In Seattle, currently the US city with the most Covid-19 cases, local researchers were so exasperated by the CDC’s initial faulty test that they came up with their own, as Stat’s Helen Branswell reported:
Frustrated by the lack of testing resulting from the problem with the CDC-developed kit, the Seattle Flu Study began using an in-house developed test to look for Covid-19 in samples from people who had flu-like symptoms but who had tested negative for flu.
That testing was vital for Washington, as it led to more clues about how the disease was spreading there. Genetic detective work from Washington suggests the virus has been circulating there for at least six weeks. Modeling suggests there could be 1,110 cases of Covid-19 in the Seattle area.”
Unfortunately, this and other sites testing independently of the CDC is becoming more sticky to track, and some cases are “preemptively positive” and not officially added to the count of positive cases until the CDC confirms through their own sluggish testing regime. At this point it’s even hard to get an accurate number on how many tests the country is doing a day, since independent labs and states are taking it into their own hands.
By most estimates, as of yesterday, we have performed about 7000 Coronavirus tests total. This is absurdly behind every other developed nation at this point.
“As of March 11, according to an investigation led by the Atlantic, a little more than 7,000 Covid-19 tests have been performed — a number far behind other developed countries. (The Atlantic’s investigation is in partnership with independent researchers and is being updated daily.)
South Korea, for example, has tested more than 140,000 people and has even set up drive-though testing stations for people to access. So far, the Trump administration’s promises to increase testing have fallen flat.”
According to those numbers, we have the lowest testing per million by almost three times to the next country (23 per million vs Japan at 66 per million). And over 38 times less testing than Italy and over 100 times less testing than both South Korea and China.
You don’t have to take my word for it. Call up your doctor or local healthcare provider right now. Tell them you have a fever and a cough and you need to be tested for Coronavirus. They will most likely ask if you’ve had any contact with anyone with a positive case of Coronavirus confirmed by the CDC, or if you have been traveling overseas recently to China. If not then they will tell you to stay home and rest or worst case go to the ER. And they will give you the same run around there unless you physically can’t breathe because they’re very limited in both the supply of tests and their ability to administer them due to red tape.
What does this mean? It means that the current numbers of about 1000 in the US are complete bullshit. We have seen confirmed cases of the virus here from outside any known source from other countries and we see multiple cases of community spread across different areas of the country. The independent testing that they did in Seattle against the CDC’s advice showed that the virus was present as of 6 weeks ago in their population. This means the virus is well outside the criteria the CDC has set, and many, many more people are probably infected. There’s a reason that countries like Italy, China, and South Korea had their positive cases explode almost overnight. It’s not because everyone suddenly got sick but because they already were and the governments started testing everyone. South Korea even has drive thru tests available.
We didn’t have to be this far behind the world in testing. From declining the use of the WHO approved testing kits that were offered, to having to constantly battle red tape between the CDC and FDA for local labs to be approved testing (they still aren’t), to supply chains of metals required for the CDC kits being in short supply, our government has bungled this pandemic at every turn. And yes, this is the part where I pivot to talking about Trump. The last man anyone wants to see in charge of our federal government right now.
His administration, after gutting the CDC emergency response last year, has mishandled this response with every step. From weeks of downplaying the emergency to calling it “just a flu” or that “it’ll be gone in May”, to now his terrible roll-out of an ineffectual and chaotic ban on travel from Europe. It’s all fun and games watching Trump mess up twitter over something somewhat inconsequential like attacking celebrities or even the more consequential stuff like putting children in cages or having terrible leadership when Puerto Rico was decimated twice or faking hurricane trajectories. Sure those were awful, but I mean, they didn’t affect YOU, right?
Well, elections (and impeachments) have consequences, and we now have the toddler in chief leading us to doom and the only thing on his mind right now is “Can I make sure the stock market is back up by November? And can I short it in the meantime? And if not can I blame the Democrats for it?” Tens of thousands of Americans are going to die thanks directly to this administrations’ complete incompetence to respond quickly to this virus.
And of course all of these developed countries that are testing have one more thing in common: all of the tests and treatment for the coronavirus are free. It didn’t take any legislative action to implement (which Democrats just tried to do and were blocked by the GOP because, reasons), because of course these countries already have free healthcare for all of their citizens. Also, most of them have mandated sick leave offered to everyone. Something that our most vulnerable service professions have no access to and will be forced to work and spread the virus while infected because they have no insurance and no ability to stay home.
Also, here in America, we can’t even agree on getting more than a copay waived for testing, and that’s of course only if you actually have healthcare. And yes, it’s just the copay. If you’re one of the lucky dozen or so getting an actual CDC approved test for Coronavirus done, then you’ll be getting a bill for a couple hundred in a few weeks if you haven’t met your deductible. This is completely counter to what this country needs to have been doing weeks ago. We can’t discourage people from getting tested. We need all the data and info we can get to react accordingly. We’re flying this ship blind through a sea of icebergs, and Trumps’ at the helm with a blindfold on and earplugs in.
Ok, so what about the stocks and the economy? Yes, it’s plunging. Guess what? It was all on a sugar high for all of Trumps’ presidency. His house of cards is collapsing and since he’s already deregulated and gutted everything and used all the tricks in the book that you would use in a recession to keep the economy falsely propped up and from naturally down turning, there’s nothing to slow it down.
I already talked about how shaky our economy is and how Wall Street is all just rich people doing a circle jerk with corporate money at this point. But really, if the only response to keep the system afloat possible to a worldwide pandemic is to bury our heads in the sand and pretend it isn’t happening, maybe that system needs a change. Trump can lie and bluster all he wants, when the hospitals are overloaded beyond capacity in the next few weeks and cases are appearing all over the country and wealthy and poor are getting sick, reality will finally crash through the republican propaganda fantasy land for once. I hope this is a wake up call for our country’s need for a robust, free healthcare system and a stable and competent administration, but after following the disappointing results of the primary’s, I’m not so sure that’ll be the case.
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